How seasonality, diversification and segmentation are shaping destination survival
As one tourism season closes, another opens. Yet with ever increasing numbers of ghost resorts in the winter ski season, transformation is the only solution to pull destinations back from the brink as we head towards the European summer season. Seasonality shifts are already taking place due to a variety of factors on the supply and demand sides.
Switching up travel patterns
Consumers are looking beyond peak season in Europe, fed up with the effects of over-tourism on the travel experience, also influenced by cheaper prices by travelling off peak. In addition, the war in the Middle East is causing major shockwaves to the global economy forcing people to reconsider where, how and whether they can afford to travel due to rising prices from the energy shock.
The IMF in its baseline scenario points to a downgrade of world GDP by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1% growth in 2026. However, this forecast outlook depends on the ‘duration, intensity and scope’ of the war, creating high levels of uncertainty, further dampening consumer confidence. New Entry Exit Scheme (EES) requirements are exacerbating traveller woes.
“The younger generations are most likely to change their plans due to climate change, based on data from the European Travel Commission.”
Consumers are already disrupting traditional seasonality patterns, with 31% of respondents in a Skyscanner survey only travelling in shoulder seasons. This compares to 76% for luxury visitors travelling outside of peak times according to Virtuoso travel agents. The latter was influenced not just by overcrowding but also climate impacts where extreme weather events are increasingly becoming a factor in where and when people go away.
The younger generations are most likely to change their plans due to climate change, based on data from the European Travel Commission, where 79% of European Generation Zs have adopted one behavioural change due to climate change. This includes travelling in a different month or choosing an alternative destination with cooler temperatures.
Destinations play catch up as risks multiply
The Travel Foundation’s work with the Dolomites – famed for its hiking and skiing with UNESCO World Heritage status – exemplifies a destination that is being proactive regarding the risks faced to create a pathway for success. The Dolomites is one of six destinations trialling a new way to asses climate risk, developed as part of the Destination Climate RiskScan initiative in partnership with Risklayer and CELTH The project aims to create a tool that will help destination managers assess the vulnerability of their destination, manage risk and prioritise investment for resilience.
This work is essential to avoid the fate of destinations that are facing the loss of their natural assets due to climate change and hence their purpose. The lack of snowfall is a major challenge for any resort’s viability with the outlook precarious as mitigation methods such as artificial snow do not fully solve the challenge.
In terms of how serious the situation is, the World Economic Forum (WEF) paints a gloomy picture for the Winter Olympics and Paralympics, only ten countries will be able to host by 2040 due to the negative impacts of climate change. Despite short term measures such as artificial snow, long term viability will be hard to guarantee without serious destination adaptation.
There is much at stake as the sports industry is forecast to be worth USD8.8 trillion by 2050 of which sports tourism accounts for USD672 billion, according to Oliver Wyman and WEF research. There is a potential downgrade of USD1.6 trillion due to environmental risks, nature loss and physical inactivity world-wide.
Diversification and segmentation key strategies
Adaptation is critical for survival and one of the strategies is diversification into adventure, nature, eco-tourism and/or wellness tourism. Wellness is a sure-fire way of securing a destination’s future with the global wellness industry expected to reach USD9.8 trillion by 2029 according to the Global Wellness Institute. Whilst adventure tourism is valued at USD1 trillion by the Adventure Travel Trade Association, where 67% of travellers are open to adventure.
What this means for destinations
Building out the season so that demand and supply are spread more evenly through-out the year is not an easy task. It involves ensuring that there is local governance in place so that local communities, capacity building and employment levels are aligned. This emphasises the critical role that destination management organisations (DMOs) can play as a catalyst for stakeholder governance. DMOs that do not start assessing their risk profile will struggle to keep up with destinations such as Switzerland and Austria that have been working on deseasonalisation for decades, and who are famed for their year-round experiences, especially the former with its world-class wellness positioning.
“DMOs that do not start assessing their risk profile will struggle to keep up.”
The coolcation trend – where travellers opt for cooler climates – is expected to last into the next century. This is supported by the European Joint Research Centre that forecasts a decrease of 10% in tourism demand for southern European destinations, compared to an increase of 5% for northern destinations by 2,100 if there is 3c° to 4c° global warming vs pre-industrial levels.
From resilience to long term wellbeing
The reality of geopolitical conflict and global volatility may overshadow climate risks over the short term. However, with record-breaking temperatures reached every year, the impacts will continue to be felt by local communities dealing with the fall out of extreme weather events, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse.
Deconstructing seasonality may feel daunting to DMOs, however, it is essential to address increasing existential climate risks and shifting demand patterns by adopting flexible destination strategies. Failure to address such challenges will lead to a lack of competitiveness. It is therefore critical to not lose sight of the need to stay on the path to net zero emissions, build resilience and regenerate nature and communities. With this positive risk approach, destinations will move from surviving to thriving.
For further details, please contact, Caroline Bremner, Data Insights Specialist at The Travel Foundation, [email protected]
